More Than the Record: Why the Braves Are Trending the Right Way

"Let's not be so negative. The Braves trending the right way actually."

Courtesy of 680 The Fan

The Atlanta Braves are in Boston for a weekend series against a Red Sox team that has faced its own share of adversity this season. The Red Sox currently sit at 22-23 and come in on a three-game losing streak after being swept by the Detroit Tigers. While the records are similar on paper, Atlanta’s journey to this point has been more of a story.

The Braves, as you know, started the season 0-7 before finally scratching a W on the schedule. Since then, they’ve gone on to win six of their last eight series. Atlanta’s style and method to the madness has been heart racing and often frustrating, but I’m sure as Snitker would say, “That’s baseball.” There are only so many one-run, late-game heroics a heart can take. The Braves still have some work to do in the hitting department, but certain players have shown great promise this season. Outside of Austin Riley leading just about every major offensive category for Atlanta, players like Eli White, Alex Verdugo, and Drake Baldwin have stepped up. They’ve brought a spark when needed and helped produce wins when things could have slipped away.

Drake Baldwin in particular has been on a tear. He went 7-for-9 in the series against the Nationals this week and is now 9-for-his-last-12 overall. Baldwin provides a solid bat, and that’s something the Braves need now and going forward. Atlanta still bats a mid team average of .241 and averages just one home run per game. With the hitters the Braves have in their lineup, this season, and even going back to late last year, has been an outlier in terms of what this offense is expected to do. It’s been a weird stretch, full of hard-hit balls that end up as outs. The lack of home runs is very alarming for a team built to slug.

Even so, Atlanta is in a very good position. With Ronald Acuña Jr. on the way back and Spencer Strider set to pitch next week when the Braves travel to Washington, the season doesn’t seem so bad after all. Winning six of their last eight series shows that they’re finding ways to get it done. The pitching has steadied in recent weeks and has often been the reason the Braves have been able to stay competitive and pull out some wins. I have watched the Braves daily, and what I have seen is a unit that is dealing more times than not.

AJ Smith-Shawver has become one of the brightest storylines on the mound since returning from Gwinnett. The 22-year-old has delivered consistent starts and looks more composed than ever. His fastball is alive, and the pitch mix continues to evolve. In his most recent outings, he’s demonstrated the ability to attack hitters with conviction and stay ahead in counts, something that was more inconsistent in his earlier looks. His confidence is evident, and it’s showing in the results. When you see someone that young throwing like a veteran, it gives your rotation a different level of upside.

Braves manager Brian Snitker summed it up yesterday postgame: “I see a real confident mound presence. You know, he should be. I mean, the way he's throwing, I mean, I see that he's on the attack now. He's the aggressor, which is really, really good.”

Then there’s Chris Sale, who has looked like a man reborn in Atlanta. The veteran lefty has been nothing short of dominant over his last several starts. His velocity is up, the slider is biting again, and he's delivering quality outings with consistency. Sale’s resurgence isn’t just a nice story, it’s a real pillar in why the Braves rotation has held together while Strider has been sidelined. He’s gone from question mark to stopper, and at times looks like the ace of this staff. Tonight he will get a chance to face the Red Sox for the first time, since leaving Boston. The trust Snitker has shown by letting him work deep into games shows how far he’s come since Opening Day.

There haven’t been many bad outings overall. There will be the occasional one, nobody is perfect, but the total body of work shows real improvement across the board. Teams just haven’t run the score up on Atlanta all that often this season. The most runs allowed by the Braves in a single game this year is 10, and that came at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers. Atlanta currently ranks 10th in the majors with an average of 3.64 earned runs allowed per game. For comparison, that’s just a .80 difference from the division rival Mets, who lead the majors at 2.84 per game. Not bad at all if you ask me. Atlanta also shown themselves to limit opportunities, as they have a team average of 1.234 WHIP. They reflects expecially in the fact that the Braves gives up just under four runs a game, at 3.89. That stands at eighth in the majors.

The bullpen has been solid overall as well. Often in these Braves late game wins, the bullpen was the one that kept the game together at the end as well. Anytime you win by one run, just think how of much pressure that is on the relief arms. Especially when one or two swings could derail everything worked for. That has happened a time or two lately, but again, look at the total body of work, not one game in particular.

I know people get tired of the analytics and algebra equations in sports sometimes. I agree, it can be overwhelming. I just wanted to drop a little perspective today that the Braves are not in the worst position here. The bats will wake up, and hopefully the pitching can stay solid. We haven’t even hit June yet. All it takes is for Atlanta to have a good stretch where they finally put together a string of wins, and everything will start to look like a whole different season.

They are already winning series, but a nice win streak would add more of a jolt to the mental side of things as well. So would winning comfortably. This year’s team rarely knows what it’s like to have a nice, comfortable win, but as was mentioned on the Braves Radio broadcast a couple of nights ago, these close wins will help the Braves down the line. When it becomes playoff time, and if the Braves are around, they’ll already know how it feels to be in those close game situations. They’re already battle-tested, and it’s just mid-May. A few tweaks in the hitting department, and more consistent outings from the pitching staff, the Atlanta Braves could be heading towards a good result throughout this season.